Santa Fe, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

350
FXUS65 KABQ 090924
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
324 AM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 307 AM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

- Warming temperatures and dry conditions will continue through
  the end of the week. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above
  normal and around record values come mid to late this week. The
  hottest day will be Saturday with widespread 90s and 80s.

- Minor heat-related impacts are possible throughout the week for
  those outside for an extended period of time without taking
  proper precautions.

- Breezy to windy conditions on Saturday and Sunday with stronger
  gusts for northeast areas. Single digit relative humidities and
  warm temperatures will also contribute to widespread critical
  fire weather conditions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Well above normal temperatures through the end of the weekend for
all areas. While a brief backdoor front will cool temperatures in
eastern NM slightly on Thursday, it will still be quite toasty for
April. Record high temperatures are threatened each day starting
Thursday and ending Sunday for many areas around the state. Friday
and especially Saturday will be the hottest days, with highs in the
80s and 90s for most locations. Winds also pick up areawide during
the weekend, with stronger gusts for areas along and east of the
central mountains on Sunday. This will lead to widespread critical
fire weather conditions during the afternoons. Temperatures cool
heading into next week as a backdoor cold front pushes through
eastern New Mexico. Chances of rain also look to return as a
storm system approaches from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Yesterday`s surface low near the NM/OK/CO border will slide
southeastward the remainder of the night, dragging a weak front
through eastern NM. This front will largely wash out by mid
afternoon, with light winds prevailing. However, high-based cumulus
may develop across far northeast NM this afternoon and virga could
induce brief but gusty/erratic winds. Meanwhile, deep mixing will
result in breezy northwest winds across much of central and western
NM this afternoon as an upper high builds over AZ. High temperatures
will continue to trend upward another 2 to 6 degrees areawide today.
Today is forecast to be ABQ`s first 80 degree day this year. Record
highs will likely be just out of reach as high temperatures will
fall a few degrees short. Quiet and mild conditions are expected
overnight. On Thursday, a slightly stronger backdoor cold front will
push through eastern NM. High temperatures will trend downward 3 to
7 degrees across eastern NM, but elsewhere, temperatures will
continue to trend upward a few degrees. All areas will remain above
normal, though a few areas across western NM should break or tie
records for the date thanks to the 589dam H5 high centered over Pie
Town. These H5 heights are around 2-2.5 standard deviations above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

The high pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest will peak on
Friday with 500 mb heights of around 586 to 588 dm for New Mexico.
According to local sounding climatology, these would be record
values for this time of year, and as a result of these anomalous
heights, anomalously high temperatures are also expected. The NAEFS
ensemble standardized anomaly indicates that high temperatures on
Friday and Saturday will be 1 to 2 standard deviations from
climatology. This ensemble forecast falls within the 95th percentile
of the climatological record for this time of year. All this to say
that there is very high confidence for several record high
temperatures to be broken on Friday and especially Saturday when
warm southerly flow may bump temperatures a couple degrees more.
Guidance backed off on high temperatures for the Rio Grande Valley
on Friday, but for other areas it once again trended up. For
Saturday, guidance is pretty bullish and wants to smash records
around the state, particularly for southeastern areas where
downsloping southwest winds look to heat up the environment. The NBM
25th percentile is showing 98 at Roswell and the 50th percentile is
showing 100 F. Don`t yet have the confidence to go that high, but
it is pretty telling that the lower quartiles of the NBM are
showing near 100 degrees for early April. Roswell`s earliest 100
degree day is April 22, current forecast is within 3 degrees at
97. Overall, expecting widespread 90s for most of eastern New
Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley, with widespread 80s and upper
70s for the rest of the state.

Westerly and southwest winds also start to pick up during the
weekend as the ridge begins to shift east towards the Great Plains
and a shortwave trough dips into the northern Rockies.
Strengthening 30 to 40 kt 700 mb flow will create breezy
conditions throughout the state on Saturday. Winds pick up even
more on Sunday as 994-996 mb surface low develops over the
Oklahoma panhandle during the afternoon. This will lead to some
near Wind Advisory conditions for the northeast quarter of the
state. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, but still 10 to 15 above
average, with downsloping winds keeping the east warmer. Critical
fire weather conditions will be a big concern for this weekend as
minimum relative humidities through the state will be in the
single digits. These dry conditions combined with hot temperatures
and gusty winds are prime ingredients for rapid fire spread.

The ridge continues to flatten heading into next week, with
temperatures dropping as well. The shortwave that brought along the
gusty winds will have moved on east into the northern plains by
Monday, pushing a backdoor cold front through eastern New Mexico
during the morning. Highs on monday for the eastern plains will be
10 to 15 degrees cooler than Sunday`s. There is still some
uncertainty among guidance regarding the upper level pattern for the
next week, but more typical spring-like conditions are expected. A
rex block develops along the pacific coast and some solutions bring
in the low over the Desert Southwest. This would increase rain
chances and create some breezy conditions as the system traverses
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Patchy cirrus
will continue to stream across the area overnight. Breezy
northwest winds will redevelop Wednesday afternoon across western
and central NM with gusts near 25kt. High-based cumulus is still
expected to develop over northeast NM late Wednesday
afternoon. Within this area, virga may lead to isolated areas of
gusty and erratic winds. This will diminish around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Breezy northwest winds will return this afternoon across western and
central NM while RH falls below 15%. This will result in localized
elevated fire weather conditions. A backdoor cold front will cool
temperatures a few degrees across eastern NM on Thursday, but this
will be the only blip in an otherwise warming pattern through
Saturday. Breezy southwest winds return Friday across eastern NM,
but daytime RH will be around 15 to 25% in the wake of the cold
front. Meanwhile, western NM will see 5 to 10 hours of single digit
humidity values Friday. The upper level ridge dominating the weather
pattern this week will be suppressed on Saturday as a system crosses
the northern Rockies. This will increase westerly flow aloft and the
surface low across SE CO will deepen to 992-996mb. Widespread breezy
to windy conditions, high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above
normal, 6-12 hours of single digit RH (the latter mainly across
central and western NM), and very unstable conditions will result in
near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. Very similar
conditions are expected on Sunday, except westerly winds will be
stronger, with gusts up to 50 mph across eastern NM, and several
hours of single digit RH will also occur across eastern NM despite
temps falling a few degrees. Therefore, widespread critical fire
weather conditions are anticipated with extremely critical fire
weather conditions likely for portions of northeast and east central
NM. Cooler conditions with less wind is expected on Monday in the
wake of a cold front, though RH values will remain below 20%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  39  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  72  31  76  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  71  37  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  77  30  80  32 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  73  36  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  77  30  79  35 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  74  38  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  77  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  74  41  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  81  36  83  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  83  39  86  39 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  65  33  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  71  48  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  72  42  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  69  36  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  58  30  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  64  23  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  72  31  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  70  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  78  40  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  73  44  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  76  40  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  49  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  83  42  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  81  45  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  82  41  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  81  44  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  83  41  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  77  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  80  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  84  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  47  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  74  47  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  74  44  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  33  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  72  41  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  75  44  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  76  43  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  50  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  73  48  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  73  38  67  40 /   5   0   0   0
Raton...........................  78  36  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  77  37  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  74  38  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  76  43  70  43 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  76  42  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  82  45  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  80  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  81  45  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  80  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  81  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  83  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  88  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  83  49  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  81  49  78  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...34

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Wednesday, April 9.